In the Sumy direction, the enemy is concentrating limited, understrength, and uncoordinated forces. However, even such a group of forces will allow them to pull and fix Ukrainian forces in the border area.
This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the deputy commander of the Ukrainian brigade operating in the northern Kharkiv region, Russian troops, including Chechen units, are accumulating in the Sumy direction. The limited number of Russian personnel may indicate that Russia’s goal is to draw and hold Ukrainian forces in the border area.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian grouping in the Kursk region numbers 9,000-10,000 people.
In his opinion, this grouping consists of:
- Three understrength motorized rifle regiments (each missing one or two battalions);
- Eight motorized rifle, tank, and infantry battalions;
- One airborne battalion, transferred from various parts, formations, and military districts;
- At least two assault detachments at the level of a reinforced company or an understrength battalion.
ISW analysts believe that even limited Russian activity in other border areas could lead to the stretching of Ukrainian forces along a wide front. Russian forces will be able to stretch and pin Ukrainian forces to the border as long as Russia threatens penetration into other border areas outside the northern Kharkiv region.
It is worth noting that Ukrainian forces have recently recorded an increase in Russian units near the Sumy region. This indicates that Russia is preparing for a major offensive in the coming weeks. According to the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, a decisive Russian offensive on Sumy should be expected.
Photo: open sources
